iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF

TLH tracks a market-weighted index of debt issued by the U.S. Treasury. Remaining maturity must be between 10 and 20 years.

The iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH) is a high duration exposure, making it sensitive to changes in expectations and actualities around benchmark yields. Rising oil prices from recent weaker levels on strong demand data and potential geopolitical conflicts could limit rate cuts, which is bad for duration bets. Strong wage growth and payroll data and high inflation expectations in consumer surveys reflect underlying inflation that may otherwise be above policy targets without the help of commodity deflation.

TLH: Upside Risk On Oil And Rates

TLH invests in mid to long-term U.S. treasuries and benefits from a declining inflation environment, which supports a buy rating. Inflation has cooled from 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% in August 2024, opening the door for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A potential economic recession could further accelerate rate cuts, boosting TLH's fund price and resulting in significant capital appreciation.

TLH: Significant Capital Appreciation Possible

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Expectations of Fed rate cuts have been rising lately due to continued signs of cooling inflation.

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The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

The latest inflation data signals confirmed bets that the Fed will cut rates next week, pushing Treasury ETFs to new highs.

Here's Why Treasury ETFs Are Scaling New Highs

Inflation and interest rates are remaining high. Inflation is not really going down, and inflation expectations are going to make the figure resistant to decline. We aren't even seeing unemployment kick in to pressure inflation rates given current rates.

TLH: Inflation Highly Likely To Stay High, Save Commercial Real Estate Threat

It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.

Estimating The Impact Of Lower Rates On Bond Fund Dividends

With an inverted yield curve and a lackluster start for the year for stocks, it is a good time to check whether we are swimming naked. The article provides a simple clear-cut explanation of the bond market and bonds. Long-term bonds might be risky for some, while short-term bonds might not capture the true opportunity of having an inverted yield curve.

Live And Let Bond (Prices Move)

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The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF continued to decline on Wednesday, dropping to another round of 16-year lows as U.S. Treasurys saw renewed selling.

U.S. Treasury bond rout deepens as popular fixed-income ETFs touch decade-plus lows

The TLH is a duration bet that may not be favorable in the current interest rate environment. We believe higher rates will be needed in 2024 and even 2025, in order to impact inflation through the corporate channel. The impact of higher rates on consumers has been limited, but businesses and corporate earnings will drive recessionary pressures more through restructuring efforts and lower employment.

TLH: Duration Still Dangerous

Long-term bonds look appealing to Wells Fargo Investment Institute after they were hurt by a surge in yields.

Why Wells Fargo sees potentially ‘good entry points' in long-term bonds after yield surge

Exchange-traded funds that invest in long-term Treasury bonds are dropping Thursday, as yields continued their march higher in the wake of the Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy.

ETFs that buy long-term Treasury bonds drop sharply after Fed signals higher for longer rates

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Fixed-income investors looking for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are still waiting, but that hasn't stopped low-rated bonds from posting strong gains in 2023. Bond investors hoping for encouraging signals from the Federal Reserve that its policy of raising interest rates was ending received mixed news yesterday.

Bank Loans And Junk Bonds Are Having A Good Year

Shares of exchange-traded funds that buy U.S. Treasury bonds with long-term maturities fell Monday, after three straight weeks of declines, as Goldman Sachs Group analysts forecast the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next year.

Long-term Treasury bond ETFs fall as Goldman Sachs forecasts rate cuts in 2024

TLH is a long-duration bet in a risky environment for long-duration plays. Long-term rates are in flux, and it concerns how difficult the last leg of inflation will be to achieve. Signs like last year's inflation expectations for 2024 point to this being the limit of what easy lapping of data and supply chain resolutions will fix.

TLH: The Bigger Changes In Long-Term Rates Could Still Happen

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Hello! This is markets reporter Isabel Wang bringing you this week's ETF Wrap. In this week's edition, I spoke with CFRA's Aniket Ullal, head of ETF data and analytics, about thematic ETF ideas and investment categories for the second half of 2023.

Here are ETF themes and categories investors may want to consider in the second half of 2023

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Exchange-traded funds that invest in Treasury bonds fell Tuesday after the May inflation report, as the market anticipated the Federal Reserve may continue hiking interest rates after a June pause.

Treasury-bond ETFs fall after inflation report as investors brace for Fed decision

TLH holds treasury bonds in the 10-20 year range. For leaving the safety of shorter-term yields, you get the double penalty of lower yields and higher risk.

TLH: Federal Reserve Cuts Priced Into Bonds, Will You Still Make Money?

I am bullish on Treasuries at the 3.8-4% level on the 10-year. TLH presents an attractive proposition after its +20% drawdown since late 2021 and amid deteriorating economic conditions.

Navigating The Treasury Bonds Renaissance: TLH And The Path To Profitable Returns

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Exchange-traded funds may help when planning required minimum distributions.

Seniors and ETFs: It's About Taxes

TLH owns a portfolio of U.S. treasuries with an average maturity year of 17.4 years. If inflation can cool down quickly, investors will benefit not only from interest income but also from capital appreciation.

TLH: Time To Accumulate But Patience Required

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During Refinitiv Lipper's fund flows week that ended February 13, 2023, investors were overall net purchasers of fund assets for the first week in three, adding a net of $5.6 billion. Exchange-traded equity funds recorded $783 million in weekly net inflows, marking the fourth straight week of inflows.

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Powell spoke on Wednesday, and markets had mixed feelings on what he had to say. Still, markets are getting more excited about duration now that the back of inflation seems like it's breaking.

Still Might Be Early For TLH

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Hello! In this week's ETF Wrap, I spoke with BlackRock's U.S. head of bond ETFs, Steve Laipply, and also caught up with Invesco's John Hoffman, the firm's head of ETFs and indexed strategies for the Americas.

‘They can actually derisk their portfolios': Here's where BlackRock is seeing iShares bond ETFs garner inflows amid climbing bond yields

2022 has been the year with no safety in US Treasuries, with painful and persistent declines. With the BofA 10+ Year US Treasury Index already down 7% this month, September will be the eighth month this year that long-term US Treasuries have had a negative total return.

One-Way Bonds

News for iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF ETF (TLH)