Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares

TMV provides -3x daily exposure to a market-value-weighted index of US Treasury bonds with over 20 years to maturity.

The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF is a leveraged ETF that takes a 3x leveraged position against high-duration Treasuries. Leveraged ETFs have unintuitive behavior and value erosion due to daily resetting, making them risky, speculative and peculiar, although more appropriate in short bursts. There is a case for downside to long-duration Treasuries and that next week's data releases and Fed comments may provide catalysts for TMV to rise.

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Banks are relatively firm on the expectation that interest rates will fall in 2024, giving the bond market plenty of optimism heading into the new year.

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Top Performing Leveraged/Inverse ETFs: 10/22/2023

Rising yields have undoubtedly done a number on bond prices, but they open up bearish opportunities in certain inverse leverage exchange traded funds (ETFs). With the S&P 500 Bond index turning negative for the year, bullish bond investors aren't the only one feeling the pangs of the current macroeconomic environment.

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The U.S. jobs market has been hot despite higher rates while U.S. consumers have been resilient despite high inflation.

ETF Strategies to Follow Amid Rising Rates

While the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to wrestle with inflation, bond yields continue to move higher, offering opportunities for both bearish and bullish bond prices in the short term. In the meantime, yields continue to climb to new peaks as the Fed's higher-for-longer narrative continues to feed into higher borrowing costs.

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Pairing Direxion Daily's 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF with their 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF produces a low volatility couple. Shorting both leveraged ETFs is attractive because they decay over time due to having a higher beta than their underlying. The performance of this low volatility couple is determined by the behavior of their underlying; it may lose value during strong trends.

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These were last week's top performing leveraged and inverse ETFs. Note that because of leverage, these kinds of funds can move quickly.

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Last week marked the fourth straight week of losses for the S&P 500.

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The U.S. Treasury yields have been on a surge lately, driven by the expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining elevated interest rates. This has led to a surge in ETFs that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds.

Inverse Treasury ETFs Surge as Yields Rise

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares has delivered strong returns, up almost 51% since August 2021 and 36% since March 2022. Holding leveraged funds like TMV for a sustainable period of time when wrong on direction is always the wrong decision due to elevated risk. Rising inflation in the US, fueled by higher oil prices, suggests more tightening by the Fed, putting pressure on bond prices over time.

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Bond yields are likely to be high going into 2024. Here are the best ETF strategies to play the scenario.

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For fixed income investors looking to extract yield from the bond market, now is an opportune time. One of the reasons keeping yields elevated at their current levels is central bank action overseas.

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The U.S. Treasury yields have been on a surge lately, driven by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation.

ETF Strategies to Fight Rising Rates

The U.S. Treasury yields have been on a surge lately, driven by expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation and downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Fitch Ratings.

Bets on Higher Rates Trigger Rally in Inverse Treasury ETFs

With the expectation that rate hikes will be dissipating, fixed income investors may start to look at long-term Treasury debt again. However, hedge fund titan and Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman said the opposite.

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Treasury yields spiked to the highs of 2023 in the Aug 2 trading session, buoyed by plans of a flood of government-debt issuance and signs of the labor market's enduring strength. This led to a spike in ETFs that bet against U.S. Treasury bonds.

Inverse Treasury ETFs Spike as Yields Hit 2023 Highs

The double whammy of a Fitch Rating credit rating cut and chances of a hawkish Fed has pushed the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield to the highest level since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data, quoted on Barrons.

Inverse Treasury ETFs to Play as 10-Yr Yield at Highest Since November

Bets on less rate hikes are increasing, which is providing the headwinds for bonds to push higher. However, a heating economy could add some hawkishness to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could stifle further upside in rising Treasury bills.

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Hedge fund bets on falling U.S. Treasury prices could be putting the stability of the global financial system in a precarious position, according to the Bank of England. Per MarketWatch, the BOE is seeing outsized short positions on Treasury securities rising to levels not seen since 2018.

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TMV is a leveraged ETF that offers 300% of the inverse daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, making it a highly volatile and short-term speculative instrument. The main driver of TMV's performance is interest rates, which are expected to peak in 2023 and decline in 2024, negatively impacting TMV's value. Due to the anticipated decline in interest rates, TMV is recommended as a Sell for the next 12 months.

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Treasury bonds registered an all-time high at the height of the Covid panic back in March 2020. But since then, the asset class has trended lower, largely due to stubbornly high levels of inflation.

News for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares ETF (TMV)