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How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?

90 days or more11¢11%
120 days or more7¢7%
30 days or more——
$200,065.04 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If United States imports of live cattle from Sonora, Mexico, are suspended for a cumulative total of at least 90 calendar days between November 6, 2026 and March 31, 2027, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Only suspensions publicly announced by a U.S. federal authority and covering all live cattle from Sonora at every authorized U.S. port count. Days are cumulative, include weekends and holidays, and need not be consecutive.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceABC, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNBC, CNN, Federal Register, Fox News, MS Now, NBC, New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, White House, the U.S. Department of Agriculture
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$200,065.04
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Officials, employees, and contractors of the United States Department of Agriculture, including the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the Agricultural Marketing Service, and the Office of the Secretary, and of any import inspection facility at a port of entry authorized for live cattle originating from Sonora, Mexico
    • Officials, employees, and contractors of U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security involved in the import of live animals at the southern border
    • Officials and staff of the Executive Office of the President, including the White House
    • Officials, employees, and contractors of the Government of Mexico and of the Government of the State of Sonora involved in animal health surveillance, New World screwworm response, or the certification of cattle for export, including the National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety and Quality (SENASICA) and the Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development
    • Members of Congress, congressional staff, and any other persons, including customs brokers, importers, exporters, and facility operators, who possess material nonpublic information relating to a Suspension, Effective Date, or Reopening Date, including non-public advance notice of any of them
    • Employees of any Source Agency with access to material nonpublic information relating to the Underlying
    • Any person who otherwise has the ability to influence, or has advance knowledge of, whether or when United States imports of live cattle originating from Sonora, Mexico, are suspended or resumed <time period>
    • The immediate family members and members of the same household of any person described above

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
90 days or more
$200.02K11¢+37.50%
120 days or more
$47.188¢+75.00%
30 days or more
$017¢-100.00%
60 days or more
$014¢-100.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
90 days or more
$200.02K95¢-3.26%
120 days or more
$47.1899¢-3.13%
30 days or more
$093¢+13.64%
60 days or more
$096¢+9.89%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?. The leading outcome is 90 days or more, with an estimated probability of 11% and a Yes contract price of $0.11. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended? is Apr 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Associated Press, BBC, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNBC, CNN, Federal Register, Fox News, MS Now, NBC, New York Times, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, White House, the U.S. Department of Agriculture as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?

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How many days will U.S. cattle imports from Sonora be suspended?

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