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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

Above 24999¢99%
210-2130.3¢0%
234-2370.2¢0%
$22,565,017.52 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included. Clarification (11/12/26): Kalshi has filed an amendment to this market's Contract so that it can settle before February 1, 2027 once the election results have decided it. Starting November 26, 2026, Kalshi will check each party's seat count every day at 10:00 AM ET using Associated Press race calls, with a buffer for changes after the election (5 seats off the floor in the House, 1 in the Senate, and 1 seat added to the ceiling). Any market the results have decided will settle that morning; the rest will settle on February 1, 2027 as they do now. If the composition of Congress on February 1, 2027 would have paid an early-settled market the other way, Kalshi will credit $1.00 per contract for positions held on that side at 7:00 AM ET on November 12, 2026. Contracts bought after that time are not covered. For example, as of November 11, 2026, the Associated Press has declared Democrats the winner of 254 House seats, with 13 seats undeclared. That gives Democrats a floor of 254 (seats declared) and a ceiling of 267 (254 plus the 13 undeclared), or 249 and 268 after the buffers. In KXDHOUSESEATS-27, every range from "Below 210" through "242-245" lies entirely below both values, so those markets would expire and settle No; "246-249" and "Above 249" each contain one of the two values, so they continue to trade and are checked again the next morning.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceUnited States Congress
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$22,565,017.52
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Holders of federal and statewide public office.
    • Paid campaign staffers on House and Senate campaigns.
    • Anyone working in a vote-tallying capacity, or who has the potential ability to observe official vote counts before they are public.
    • Third-party vendors and contractors (and employees thereof) of Congressional campaigns.
    • Paid employees of Democratic and Republican Party organizations,
    • Paid employees of Political Action Committees (PACs) and "Super PACs"
    • Paid employees of major polling organizations.
    • Employees of Decision Desks at major media organizations
    • All staff of the U.S. House of Representatives and its members.
    • All staff of the U.S. Senate and its members.
    • All staff of the Office of the President of the United States
    • All staff of the Office of the Vice President of the United States
    • All staff of the U.S. Supreme Court and its Justices

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 249
$4.85M99.5¢-1.00%
Below 210$2.45M0.1¢—
246-249$2.27M0.1¢—
242-245$2.18M0.1¢—
218-221
$1.46M0.1¢—
214-217
$1.41M0.1¢—
238-241$1.40M0.1¢—
234-237
$1.38M0.1¢—
210-213
$1.36M0.1¢—
222-225
$1.29M0.1¢—

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 249
$4.85M1¢—
Below 210$2.45M100¢-0.10%
246-249$2.27M100¢-0.10%
242-245$2.18M100¢-0.10%
218-221
$1.46M100¢-0.10%
214-217
$1.41M100¢-0.10%
238-241$1.40M100¢-0.10%
234-237
$1.38M100¢-0.20%
210-213
$1.36M100¢-0.30%
222-225
$1.29M100¢-0.10%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?. The leading outcome is Above 249, with an estimated probability of 99% and a Yes contract price of $0.995. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? is Feb 1, 2027. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using United States Congress as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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  2. 2

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  3. 3

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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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