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USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision

Above 156.00——
Above 156.25——
Above 156.50——
$0 Vol.

Event estimated to resolve on . These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If the USD/JPY exchange rate published by Pyth Network is above 156.00 at Dec 9, 2026 at 3:00pm ET, then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses the Pyth Network FX.USD/JPY aggregate/midpoint spot exchange rate at Dec 9, 2026 at 3:00pm ET. The price is rounded to 2 decimal places before comparison with 156.00. Above means strictly greater than; equality does not satisfy the condition. Prices at other times and the confidence interval do not establish the outcome. No averaging or automatic carry-forward of stale prices applies. If Pyth discontinues or materially changes the feed, a substantially equivalent replacement feed published by Pyth may be used at the Exchange's discretion with notice to Members. If the Expiration Value cannot be determined, Rule 7.1 applies. Revisions after expiration are excluded. The latest expiration is 10:00 AM ET seven calendar days after the observation date; any earlier expiration follows Rule 7.2. The event named in the title provides context. The published observation timestamp governs; a delayed or rescheduled release does not automatically change it. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Pyth Data Association. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourcePyth - USDJPY
  • Est. resolution date
  • Total event volume$0.00
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Any employee, officer, director, or contractor of Pyth Network, or of any data provider contributing price feeds to Pyth Network's USD/JPY aggregate price.
    • Any individual or entity with the ability to directly influence, manipulate, or alter the Source Agency's published USD/JPY price, including node operators, data publishers contributing to the Pyth aggregate, or personnel with administrative access to the feed's publication infrastructure.
    • Any employee or official of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, or other monetary authority who has non-public knowledge of imminent monetary policy decisions, interventions, or actions reasonably likely to materially affect the USD/JPY exchange rate, during the period in which such information remains non-public.
    • Any Member identified as a Politically Engaged Person, or as a family member or close associate of a Politically Engaged Person, whose role or relationships could reasonably be expected to provide advance knowledge of market-moving fiscal or monetary policy actions affecting USD/JPY.
    • Any Member engaging in wash trading, spoofing, or coordinated trading activity designed to influence the Source Agency's published price, or other conduct prohibited under Chapter 5 of the Rulebook.
    • Any individual or entity subject to sanctions, watchlist designation, or other legal restriction that would prohibit their participation in derivatives trading under applicable law.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 156.00
$094¢-100.00%
Above 156.25
$093¢-100.00%
Above 156.50
$092¢-100.00%
Above 156.75
$090¢-100.00%
Above 157.00
$088¢-100.00%
Above 157.25
$086¢-100.00%
Above 157.50
$084¢-100.00%
Above 157.75
$082¢-100.00%
Above 158.00$079¢-100.00%
Above 158.25$076¢-100.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Above 156.00
$012¢+1,150.00%
Above 156.25
$013¢+900.00%
Above 156.50
$015¢+733.33%
Above 156.75
$016¢+669.23%
Above 157.00
$018¢+614.29%
Above 157.25
$020¢+525.00%
Above 157.50
$023¢+400.00%
Above 157.75
$025¢+354.55%
Above 158.00$028¢+316.67%
Above 158.25$031¢+257.14%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision. The leading outcome is Above 156.00, with an estimated probability of 0% and a Yes contract price of $0.94. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The estimated resolution date for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision is Dec 9, 2026. The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using Pyth - USDJPY as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

How to trade the odds on USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision

  1. 1

    Create a Public account

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  2. 2

    Fund your account

    Securely link your bank account to deposit funds. Depending on eligibility, you may unlock up to $250,000 in instant buying power right away.

  3. 3

    Buy and sell event contracts

    Explore Prediction Markets from the Invest menu or search Public for USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision. Review the latest odds and probabilities, then buy or sell event contracts based on your view.

  4. 4

    Manage your portfolio

    Track your prediction market positions alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. Plus, create AI Agents for investing and connect your portfolio through MCP to AI models like ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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USD/CAD at 9:30am ET · US PCE inflation + GDP
| $0.00 Vol.
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USD/JPY at 9:30am ET · US PCE inflation + GDP
| $0.00 Vol.
Above 158.50
Above 158.00
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$1,152,060.22 Vol.
5.75 or above
6 or above
7 or above
How high will DXY get in 2026?
$149,498.28 Vol.
Above 103
Above 104
Above 105

Live odds on USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision

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USD/JPY at 3:00pm ET · Fed decision

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Event estimated to resolve on at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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Trading event contracts involves significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Before investing, please read our Event Contracts Risk Disclosure and carefully consider your financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance. Live data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed or incorrect.


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Cryptocurrency investing is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrencies offered by Zero Hash are not securities and are not FDIC insured or protected by SIPC. Your cryptocurrency assets are held by Zero Hash, not Public. Your Zero Hash Crypto account is separate from your brokerage account with Public Investing, which holds US-listed stocks and ETFs. Please review the Risk Disclosures before trading.

Treasury Accounts.
Investing services in treasury accounts offering 6 month US Treasury Bills on the Public platform are through Jiko Securities, Inc. (“JSI”), a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA & SIPC. See JSI’s FINRA BrokerCheck and Form CRS for further information. JSI uses funds from your Treasury Account to purchase T-bills in increments of $100 “par value” (the T-bill’s value at maturity). T-bills are purchased at a discount to the par value and the T-bill’s yield represents the difference in price between the “par value” and the “discount price.” Aggregate funds in your Treasury Account in excess of the T-bill purchases will remain in your Treasury Account as cash. The value of T-bills fluctuate and investors may receive more or less than their original investments if sold prior to maturity. T-bills are subject to price change and availability - yield is subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investments in T-bills involve a variety of risks, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk. As a general rule, the price of a T-bills moves inversely to changes in interest rates. Although T-bills are considered safer than many other financial instruments, you could lose all or a part of your investment. See Jiko U.S. Treasuries Risk Disclosures for further details.

Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value.

Banking services and bank accounts are offered by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid-Central National Bank. JSI and Jiko Bank are not affiliated with Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public”) or any of its subsidiaries. None of these entities provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. You should consult your legal, tax, or financial advisors before making any financial decisions. This material is not intended as a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to purchase or sell securities, open a brokerage account, or engage in any investment strategy.

Commission-free trading refers to $0 commissions charged on trades of US listed registered securities placed during the US Markets Regular Trading Hours in self-directed brokerage accounts offered by Public Investing. Keep in mind that other fees such as regulatory fees, subscription fees, commissions on trades during extended trading hours, wire transfer fees, and paper statement fees may apply to your brokerage account. Please see Public’s Investing’s Fee Schedule to learn more.

Fractional shares are illiquid outside of Public and not transferable. For a complete explanation of conditions, restrictions and limitations associated with fractional shares, see our Fractional Share Disclosure to learn more.

Investment Plans. Investment Plans (“Plans”) shown in our marketplace are for informational purposes only and are meant as helpful starting points as you discover, research and create a Plan that meets your specific investing needs. Plans are self-directed purchases of individually-selected assets, which may include stocks, ETFs and cryptocurrency. Plans are not recommendations of a Plan overall or its individual holdings or default allocations. Plans are created using defined, objective criteria based on generally accepted investment theory; they are not based on your needs or risk profile. You are responsible for establishing and maintaining allocations among assets within your Plan. Plans involve continuous investments, regardless of market conditions. Diversification does not eliminate risk. See our Investment Plans Terms and Conditions and Sponsored Content and Conflicts of Interest Disclosure.

Alpha.
Alpha is an experiment brought to you by Public Holdings, Inc. (“Public”). Alpha is an AI research tool powered by GPT-4, a generative large language model. Alpha is experimental technology and may give inaccurate or inappropriate responses. Output from Alpha should not be construed as investment research or recommendations, and should not serve as the basis for any investment decision. All Alpha output is provided “as is.” Public makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy, completeness, quality, timeliness, or any other characteristic of such output. Your use of Alpha output is at your sole risk. Please independently evaluate and verify the accuracy of any such output for your own use case.

Market Data.
Quotes and other market data for Public’s product offerings are obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable, but Public makes no representation or warranty regarding the quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/or completeness of this information. Such information is time sensitive and subject to change based on market conditions and other factors. You assume full responsibility for any trading decisions you make based upon the market data provided, and Public is not liable for any loss caused directly or indirectly by your use of such information. Market data is provided solely for informational and/or educational purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation and does not represent a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any particular security.

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