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Politics

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

Benjamin Netanyahu48¢48%
Pedro Sánchez12¢12%
Edi Rama9¢9%
$8,320,395.94 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Vladimir Putin$1.65M2.7¢+40.00%
Miguel Díaz-Canel$1.52M4.9¢-22.50%
Xi Jinping$1.47M1.3¢+10.00%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1.39M48¢0.00%
Mohammed bin Salman$337.59K3.9¢-22.50%
Claudia Sheinbaum$308.74K2.7¢+35.00%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy$292.40K3.1¢+3.33%
Emmanuel Macron$206.10K2.4¢+45.00%
Friedrich Merz$195.89K3.8¢-13.33%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$141.41K1.4¢+40.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Vladimir Putin$1.65M98.1¢-0.82%
Miguel Díaz-Canel$1.52M96.5¢+0.94%
Xi Jinping$1.47M99¢-0.10%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1.39M53¢0.00%
Mohammed bin Salman$337.59K96.9¢+0.94%
Claudia Sheinbaum$308.74K98.9¢-0.71%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy$292.40K97.4¢-0.10%
Emmanuel Macron$206.10K98.7¢-0.92%
Friedrich Merz$195.89K97.5¢+0.41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva$141.41K99¢-0.40%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Which leaders will leave office in 2026?. The leading outcome is Benjamin Netanyahu, with an estimated probability of 48% and a Yes contract price of $0.48. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Which leaders will leave office in 2026? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Which leaders will leave office in 2026?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using ABC, Axios, Bloomberg News, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, office or organization where holds, official government websites relevant to, the Associated Press as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

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Live odds on Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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