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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

Before Jan 1, 202855¢55%
Before Jan 1, 202715¢15%
$149,403.10 Vol.

These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.

About

If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture do NOT count. Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.

  • Full contract termsView
  • SourceOpenAI
  • Est. resolution date—
  • Total event volume$149,403.10
  • Timeline

    The market will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by .

    1. Event open
    2. Event closed
    3. Projected payout
  • Insider trading is prohibited

    The following are prohibited from trading this contract:

    • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
    • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.

Trade Yes contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
$120.40K14¢+1,400.00%
Before Jan 1, 2028
$29K55¢+5,400.00%

Trade No contracts

ContractVolumePrice1D changeEst. probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
$120.40K90¢+8,400.00%
Before Jan 1, 2028
$29K52¢+4,400.00%

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Public shows live market-implied probabilities, contract prices, and trading volume for Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?. The leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2028, with an estimated probability of 55% and a Yes contract price of $0.55. Odds can change as traders buy and sell event contracts.

On Public, you can buy and sell event contracts for Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? by choosing from the available outcomes. Compare live odds, probabilities, prices, and trading volume before making a trade. You can manage prediction markets alongside stocks, options, bonds, and crypto on Public.

Each event contract represents an outcome for Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?. On Public, you can take a Yes or No position based on whether you think that outcome will occur. Contract prices reflect market-implied probabilities and can change as the market trades.

The prediction market will resolve according to its contract terms using OpenAI as the designated source. See the full contract terms on Public for the specific resolution criteria.

Yes. Public's AI Agents let you automate prediction market strategies using rules you define in plain English. Create an Agent to monitor the odds for Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? and take supported actions when your conditions are met. Since prediction markets trade 24/7, your Agent can monitor opportunities around the clock. You can also connect Public to your preferred AI model through MCP, including ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, Grok, and Muse.

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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?

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Event estimated to resolve on the estimated date at 10:00AM. These probabilities are based on what other investors recently paid for Yes and No positions.


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