AARD Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aardvark Therapeutics is attractive because exploratory efficacy from the terminated Phase 3 HERO trial and OLE still showed a drug effect in Prader-Willi syndrome, including a modest HQ-CT reduction versus placebo at week two, a return toward baseline after discontinuation, and an average 6-point HQ-CT drop in placebo switchers on ARD-101. The data were supported by similar caregiver and clinician impression scores, while tolerability remained favorable with most adverse events mild to moderate, which strengthens confidence that ARD-101 can be clinically differentiated if the clinical hold is lifted. Fundamentally, the upside is reinforced by a focused TAS2R mechanism, experienced board addition David Zhang to help optimize development, and a DCF framework implying $82M enterprise value and $140M firm value despite acknowledged risks like regulatory delay, dilution, and dependence on future trial success.

Aardvark Therapeutics is facing a fundamentally weakened outlook because the FDA’s full clinical hold on ARD-101 remains in force, halting the Phase 3 HERO trial and the Phase 3 open-label extension trial that were central to its hyperphagia-in-PWS strategy. The company’s decision in June 2026 to terminate both studies and its statement that it does not currently intend to resume them as previously designed underscore substantial development uncertainty and raise the risk that the program’s path forward will be materially delayed or reworked. With no clear clinical timeline, limited visibility on efficacy and safety beyond the unblinded data review, and a single lead asset under regulatory pressure, the fundamental investment case appears fragile.