ABG Stock Forecast & Price Target

Asbury Automotive Group is viewed favorably because its operational headwinds appear temporary while the underlying business remains a high-quality, efficient dealership platform with more than 70% of new-vehicle revenue tied to luxury and import brands. The Tekion rollout is nearly complete, and as transitioned stores season, management expects SG&A as a percentage of gross profit to improve, supporting a meaningful earnings inflection after the recent EPS volatility. With about $18 billion of revenue in 2025, a path toward $30 billion around 2030, strong cash generation, and disciplined capital allocation through buybacks and asset sales, the company has multiple levers to expand returns even before any strategic action on TCA.

Asbury Automotive Group is viewed negatively because its earnings have been volatile, and for 2026 EPS is forecast to decline 7.2%, the worst in the peer group, even before considering its leveraged balance sheet and heavy reliance on acquisitions for growth. The company remains exposed to a macro slowdown, tighter tax policy, and the accelerating shift to EVs, which could pressure its service and parts profit pool as EV maintenance costs are estimated to be 50% lower than ICE vehicles. Further, F&I growth may stall while Total Care Auto’s accounting treatment creates a $1.29 EPS headwind in 2026, potentially obscuring results just as revenue climbs toward about $18 billion in 2025 and management targets $30 billion around 2030.