Affirm (AFRM) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Affirm Holdings is viewed positively because it delivered another quarter of beat-and-raise execution, with fiscal first quarter GMV up 34% year over year to $14.4 billion, revenue of $1.26 billion, and GAAP EPS of $0.47, while management lifted FY27 guidance for GMV to more than $65.25 billion. Its outlook is supported by a secular BNPL opportunity, a stronger loan platform, and a mix shift toward interest-bearing loans that represented 72% of loans and 52% of revenue, alongside improving funding spreads and a 70%+ fixed-rate funding base. Growth is also broadening through the Affirm Card, which drove $3.3 billion of GMV, and through international expansion and merchant growth, suggesting the business is still scaling with manageable credit trends.

Affirm Holdings is viewed negatively because higher allowance rates tied to “testing loans” and a rise in delinquency suggest its credit profile may be weakening, even if management frames the newer originations as localized experiments. The company’s funding costs were 27 bps higher q/q, and with benchmark rates expected to rise in FY27, margin pressure could persist despite ~70% of on-balance-sheet funding being fixed-rate and management already embedding the headwind into guidance. In addition, the business faces meaningful macro, regulatory, capital, and competitive risks, while its top four customers account for 40% of Gross Merchandise Volume, leaving the stock vulnerable if consumer spending or credit performance deteriorates.