AIG (AIG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American International Gr is benefiting from disciplined underwriting, improving mix, and stronger investment income, which together support a more durable earnings profile. The company beat expectations with reported EPS of $2.06 versus consensus of $1.89, while General Insurance underwriting income rose 10% to $686 million, net premiums written grew 9% in North America Commercial and 7% in Global Personal, and core operating ROE reached 11.1% above its 10%+ target. Management also reaffirmed a 20%+ operating EPS CAGR over 2025–2027, a GI expense ratio below 30% by end of 2027, and $3 billion of capital generation through 2027, all of which underpins its positive outlook.

American International Gr is viewed negatively because its ability to lift ROE toward peer levels appears constrained, with reported ROE at 9.4% in 2Q26 versus peers that can generate materially higher returns on stronger operating leverage. Management has also walked back its low-to-mid teens net premiums written growth expectation, signaling that pricing pressure, a soft market, and declining International Commercial pricing are likely to cap revenue and margin expansion. Although underwriting remains relatively clean, with combined ratios in the high 80s-to-low 90s and attractive margins, the company’s overcapitalized balance sheet, limited leverage, and offsetting mix shifts make further ROE improvement look insufficient to justify a more constructive view.