AII Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Integrity Insurance Group Inc. is expected to achieve increased earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with projections rising to $5.75 for 2025, driven by higher run-rate net investment income and robust underwriting margins. The company's strategic positioning in the property and casualty insurance market, particularly in Florida, and its potential for organic growth in under-penetrated segments strengthens its optimistic outlook. Additionally, the absence of catastrophe losses in recent periods, combined with favorable terms in its reinsurance agreements, supports enhanced net premium growth, further solidifying the company's positive financial trajectory.

The financial analysis indicates a negative outlook for American Integrity Insurance Group Inc., primarily due to its heavy concentration in Florida, where 99% of its direct premium written (DPW) is sourced, exposing it to significant geographic risk. The company’s net retention for its insurance events decreases dramatically for multiple events, being $35 million for the first two events, and further declining to $16 billion and $10 billion for the third and fourth events, suggesting vulnerability to higher loss costs. Contributing to the negative perspective are broader economic risks such as adverse economic conditions, global interest rates, and escalating loss cost inflation, which may affect the company’s reinsurance availability and overall financial stability.