ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon demonstrated a positive trend in its contact lens market share, which saw year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting the company's strong competitive position in the industry. Additionally, the company's Ocular Health sales reached $416 million, experiencing a 2% increase, while Consumables sales amounted to $738 million, growing by 7% in the same period. Alcon also reported a core operating margin of 20.1%, an improvement of 120 basis points year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations, which underscores its effective cost management and operational efficiency.

The negative outlook on Alcon's stock is underscored by the potential for weaker-than-expected revenue growth, driven by market share losses in both the intraocular lens (IOL) and contact lens segments, coupled with slower margin improvement. The bear case scenario anticipates flat to low-single digit revenue growth, which, alongside minimal operating expense leverage, could hinder earnings per share growth. Additionally, while the Vision Care operating margin has shown an increase, the Surgical segment has experienced a decline, suggesting challenges in maintaining profitability across key product categories.