ALC Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alcon is anticipated to experience a recovery in its share value as it moves into fiscal year 2026, driven by an improving top-line growth profile and solid operating margin expansion. The company expects to outpace the mid-single-digit growth of the contact lens market, with a 1Q25 retail value increase noted at a mid-single-digit percentage. Additionally, continued margin improvements are projected to support double-digit growth in earnings per share (EPS).

Alcon faces significant risks that could hinder its revenue growth, particularly due to potential market share losses in both the intraocular lens (IOL) and contact lens markets, along with delays in product rollouts and external economic pressures. The company's bear case scenario anticipates flat to low-single-digit revenue growth, coupled with minimal operating expense leverage, which would result in slower earnings per share (EPS) growth than previously expected. Furthermore, potential declines in implantable products due to challenging year-over-year comparisons, particularly in relation to China's value-based purchasing (VBP) policies, add to the overall uncertainty surrounding Alcon's financial outlook.