ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin Inc. has demonstrated strong performance through an increase in same-store net operating income (NOI) growth, with management raising its 2025 forecast by 80 basis points to a range of 3.4-3.8%, supported by an occupancy rate of 95.6%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 140 basis points. The company is effectively monetizing its land bank, with multiple developments underway and leasing commitments that contribute to an optimistic outlook for revenue growth. Furthermore, a solid market presence, low liquidity, and high barriers to entry enhance proprietary deal flow, while streamlined operations lead to reduced general and administrative expenses, positively impacting the bottom line.

Alexander & Baldwin faces significant risks stemming from its geographic concentration in Hawaii, which could be adversely affected by economic downturns that slow retail sales and personal consumption, thereby jeopardizing tenant financial performance and cash flows. Additionally, rising interest rates pose a threat to the company's earnings, potentially diluting returns from existing debt and new investments, while also expanding capitalization rates and reducing property valuations. These factors, compounded by competition and the challenges associated with a transient local population, contribute to a negative outlook for the company's financial performance.