ALEX Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexander & Baldwin Inc has demonstrated strong performance in same-store net operating income (NOI), with management increasing its 2025 growth forecast by 80 basis points to a range of 3.4-3.8%, supported by an occupancy rate of 95.6%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 140 basis points. The company's proactive strategy in monetizing its land bank and the ongoing developments with leasing commitments are contributing positively to its financial outlook. Furthermore, the presence of high barriers to entry in the market, coupled with a solid track record and proprietary deal flow, enhances Alexander & Baldwin's growth prospects and positions it favorably in the commercial real estate sector in Hawaii.

Alexander & Baldwin is facing significant risks due to geographic concentration, which could lead to negative changes in retail sales and personal consumption trends, thereby impacting tenant financial performance and risking cash flows. Additionally, rising interest rates pose economic-related risks by potentially causing earnings dilution on maturing debt, negatively affecting the return potential from new investments, and expanding cap rates, which could result in lower property valuations. Lastly, the dependence on tourism and a transient local population may further exacerbate volatility in local retail sales, heightening competitive pressures within the market.