Ameresco (AMRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Ameresco Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with total adjusted EBITDA of $70.4 million exceeding forecasts by 7.8%, reflecting a 25.4% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 13.2% year-over-year increase. The company also reported a robust project backlog of $5.141 billion, which increased sequentially by 2.4% and rose 33.5% year-over-year, indicating a solid pipeline for future revenue generation. Additionally, the growth in Energy Assets, which accounted for 68% of year-to-date adjusted EBITDA, along with improved segment margins, positions Ameresco well for sustained growth in the coming years.

Ameresco Inc faces a negative outlook primarily due to its lack of company-wide free cash flow (FCF) coupled with high headline debt levels, which are concerns for investors. Additionally, the slow-moving nature of the company’s projects, coupled with customer budget uncertainties and the potential impact of a federal government shutdown, may hinder any near-term financial benefits, while the declining fiscal health of various government levels poses a further risk to demand for its products. Furthermore, substantial insider ownership and a limited stock float could adversely impact liquidity and trading dynamics, compounding the overall negative sentiment toward the company's financial prospects.