Aon (AON) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Aon is well positioned for accretion in 2028 because the USI deal adds a complementary middle-market platform and supports about $400 million of synergies, split 70% expense and 30% revenue, across a $6.5 billion combined business. The company’s experience integrating NFP has been smoother than expected, while leverage is expected to move from 4.5x back toward 3x within 24 months, helping free cash flow and setting up a steep decline in interest expense from early-2027 levels. Its solid organic growth, adjusted margin expansion, and strong capital returns are reinforced by 2Q26 results, with 2026E EPS at $19.10, 2027E EPS at $21.70, and 2028E EPS at $24.40, alongside over $1 billion in FY26E share repurchases.

Aon is facing a fundamentally negative setup because its USI acquisition was struck at a very rich 22x EBITDA, far above Aon’s own 13x multiple and the 19x paid for NFP, making the debt-financed deal immediately dilutive and likely to pressure EPS through 2027. The transaction also appears to crowd out the company’s historically reliable capital return profile, as share repurchases may be put on hold while management rightsizes leverage, and the expected 5.25% debt cost drives roughly $877 million of interest expense in 2027. More broadly, the brokerage backdrop is less supportive as organic growth tailwinds fade, so Aon must rely on large synergies and integration execution to justify a deal that looks expensive relative to recent large transactions.