APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc. demonstrated strong financial performance, as evidenced by an 11.9% year-over-year increase in revenues, excluding GSUSA, along with notable growth in enrollments across its segments. The Rasmussen University segment reported a revenue increase of 15.6%, driven by a 10.4% rise in total student enrollment, while total student enrollment at the Hondros College of Nursing saw a significant 19.4% increase, marking 23 consecutive quarters of growth. Furthermore, segment EBITDA increased 19.1% to $26.2 million, reflecting improved margins and overall operational efficiency, which collectively contribute to a positive outlook for the company's stock.

American Public Education Inc. is facing a significant decline in its net course registrations, with estimates for the fourth quarter indicating a decrease of 23% to 33% year-over-year, heavily influenced by a government shutdown and the temporary suspension of the TA program. The company's revised financial guidance anticipates lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2025 compared to earlier estimates, with projected revenue at $642.3 million, adjusted EBITDA at $77.5 million, and diluted EPS at $1.07, all below prior estimates. Additionally, fourth-quarter earnings guidance reflects expectations for revenue and adjusted EBITDA that fall short of consensus estimates, suggesting ongoing challenges and potential downside risks for the company's financial outlook.