APEI Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Public Education Inc has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenues increasing by 11.9% year-over-year when excluding GSUSA. Notably, enrollment across key segments showed significant growth, including a 12.7% increase in on-ground healthcare enrollments and an 8.9% rise in overall Rasmussen University enrollments, marking the sixth consecutive increase. Additionally, the company's EBITDA grew by 19.1%, achieving a margin of 31.5%, which reflects operational efficiency and reinforces a positive outlook for the company's financial health moving forward.

American Public Education Inc. is anticipated to experience substantial declines in net course registrations for the fourth quarter, with estimates ranging from 65,000 to 74,400, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 23% to 33% primarily due to the government shutdown and its impact on the TA program. Management's revised guidance foresees total revenue of approximately $642.3 million for 2025, which is a downward adjustment from prior expectations, alongside lowered projections for adjusted EBITDA and diluted EPS, indicating potential operational challenges. Additionally, the guidance for Q4 indicates revenue and adjusted EBITDA figures that fall short of both the previous estimates and FactSet consensus, further emphasizing the company's struggles amidst external economic pressures.