ARE Stock Forecast & Price Target

Alexandria Real Estate is supported by improving leasing momentum, with 1.2 million square feet signed in 3Q26 and occupancy at 87.1%, or 90.8% including vacant space with executed leases, signaling that demand is stabilizing despite weakness among public biotech tenants. The company’s long-term value is also strengthened by its strategy to sell non-core assets, reinvest into higher-quality mega campuses, and expand development and redevelopment projects, which should improve portfolio quality and support future growth. In addition, the growing presence of advanced technology tenants, reduced non-income-producing assets to 12% from 20% at the end of 2024, and strong funding discipline around partial sales like Campus Point enhance cash generation and flexibility.

Alexandria Real Estate is facing a weaker fundamental backdrop as broader life science leasing remains sluggish, tenant move-outs and wind-downs are expected to accelerate, and developments are rolling off capitalization, pressuring near-term earnings visibility. The outlook is further burdened by a softer biotech funding environment, competitive first-generation space leasing, and the risk that oversupply and macro uncertainty delay absorption and reduce pricing power, leaving same-store NOI still in negative territory in 2027. With FFO estimates cut to $6.40/share in 2026, $4.75/share in 2027, and $4.77/share in 2028, along with NAV erosion from asset sales and higher cap rates, the shares appear fundamentally vulnerable.