Array Technologies (ARRY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Array Technologies is supported by a strengthening demand and share-gain story, with LTM bookings of $1.89B versus $971M in the prior twelve months, a 1.5x trailing book-to-bill, and more than $500M of new bookings in 2Q26. Its integrated single-axis tracker platform, new products such as OmniTrack, SkyLink, Hail XP, and APA, and a greater focus on complete systems rather than components should improve wallet share and pricing power, while domestic manufacturing can benefit if content and compliance rules remain strict. Financially, the outlook is reinforced by estimated FY26 revenue of $1,434M and free cash flow of $39M, with better revenue growth and 44% to 42% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion expected in FY27 and FY28 as the U.S. utility solar market expands through 2028.

Array Technologies is facing a deteriorating capital structure where the Series A preferred dividend is set to grow from 6.25% to 10.25% in mid-2031, consuming an increasing share of cash that management has delayed addressing while the stock has fallen to $3.39. Although liquidity and free cash flow are still positive, the company’s 2027 preferred payments of about $35 million versus an estimated $126 million of FCF, plus a $325 million Dec 2028 convertible that remains roughly 5.5x out of the money, leave limited flexibility and make any refinancing path meaningfully dilutive. Fundamentally, margin upside also looks capped: gross margin is modeled around 28.1% in FY26E and declining toward 26.7% in FY30E, while the business remains exposed to lower-margin international growth, fading 45X benefits, and policy-driven demand risk.