AS Stock Forecast & Price Target

Amer Sports is compelling on the back of a premium-brand portfolio that generated $6.6 billion of revenue in 2025 and is being driven by Arc’teryx, Salomon, and Wilson through a decentralized operating model that lets each brand execute distinct growth strategies. Gross margin expanded from 49.8% in FY22 to 58.0% in FY25, and the mix shift toward DTC, softgoods, and faster-growing regions supports further expansion in EBIT margin from 7.2% to 14.5% by FY28E, while EPS is modeled to rise from $0.97 in FY25 to $2.02 in FY28E. Its balanced geographic exposure, with 32% of revenue from the Americas, 28% from EMEA, 28% from China, and 12% from APAC ex-China, plus strong expected FCF and net cash, reinforces the view that growth is both resilient and increasingly profitable.

Amer Sports is vulnerable because its bullish case depends on continued direct-to-consumer mix gains, with DTC rising from 36% of sales in FY23 to 54% in FY26 and a ~60% long-term target; any slowdown would threaten the roughly 350bps of gross margin expansion already achieved since FY23. The company’s premium valuation is also tied to sustained execution in its global, premium, DTC-driven model and to segment margin gains supporting its 2031 targets of $14B in sales and a 16% EBIT margin, so slippage in the Softgoods cycle, channel mix, or product reception would undermine growth. Added to that are weaker discretionary spending, FX headwinds from high international exposure, and concentrated ownership by ANTA, which owns over 40% and can nominate 5 board directors, creating governance and alignment risk.