AerSale Corp (ASLE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

AerSale is positioned to benefit from elevated AOGs tied to GTF engine issues and Spirit Airlines’ bankruptcy, which have left roughly 80 aircraft in its storage field and could keep aircraft at the Goodyear facility for about the next 12 months, supporting service revenue. Its Asset Management Solutions franchise also looks well supported by a supply-constrained USM market, with about $100M of feedstock acquired in 2025 versus about $62M in 2024, while management says 2023 acquisitions provide ample inventory for 2026. Further upside comes from TechOps expansion, including more than $50M of added MRO capacity across three facilities on-line in 1H26, plus longer-term engineered products and AerAware, which could meaningfully improve the revenue mix if execution improves.

AerSale is facing a weak fundamental setup because 3Q26 AEBITDA of $8.6M fell well short of expectations, gross margin compressed to 22.5%, and adjusted EPS turned negative at $(0.02), signaling that revenue growth has not translated into durable profitability. The mix is also fragile: Asset Management Solutions depends on lumpy flight equipment, leasing, and asset sales, while TechOps gross margin dropped sharply to 12.5%, suggesting operational pressure and limited earnings quality. A $13.4M non-cash goodwill impairment, lowered FY26E and FY27E AEBITDA estimates, and risks tied to geopolitical disruption, supply chain issues, tariffs, and delays in aircraft monetization reinforce a cautious outlook.