ASO Stock Forecast & Price Target

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. has demonstrated a positive sales trajectory, with total sales rising by 3.0% to $1.38 billion, driven by growth in outdoor, apparel, and footwear categories. The company has successfully captured traffic from higher-income consumers, with these households accounting for 40% of sales and e-commerce sales increasing by 22% year-over-year. Additionally, the acceleration of earnings per share (EPS) growth, evidenced by a 3Q25 EPS of $1.14 exceeding estimates, suggests a strong operational performance that may lead to an expansion in market valuation.

Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc. is experiencing a contraction in its operating margins, with a notable decline of approximately 50 basis points to 9.0%, indicating underlying profitability challenges. Additionally, the company's same-store sales (comp) are projected to be slightly negative at -0.5%, driven by adverse factors such as warm weather and a cautious consumer sentiment. Moreover, the drop in transactions by 4.1% in the third quarter further underscores the declining demand and headwinds in specific product categories like ammunition, contributing to a negative outlook on the stock's performance.