American Express (AXP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

American Express demonstrates a strong potential for continued growth as it has achieved significant increases in new account acquisition across both consumer and commercial segments, offsetting any slowdowns in same-customer spending. The company’s expansion in the mix of US fee-paying consumers, which rose by approximately 7-8 million cards year-over-year, indicates a solid demand for its payment products despite challenges in card fee growth. Furthermore, the strategic focus on enhancing high-reward offerings, coupled with a projected rise in Variable Cardmember Expenses to around 44% of revenue by 2026, suggests a proactive approach to maintaining profitability while attracting new customers.

American Express is experiencing a significant decline in new card acquisition (NCA), which has decreased both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet its 2026 earnings per share targets without drastic reductions in marketing growth. The company's 2026 revenue guidance seems uninspiring, with estimates indicating that revenue growth would merely be between 5-8% without the recently launched Platinum Card. Additionally, ongoing weakness in capital market valuations, particularly related to write-downs in private credit investments, is expected to disproportionately affect Amex's affluent customer base, further compounding the challenges facing the company.