Boeing (BA) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Boeing is supported by a record $745 billion backlog, including over 6,300 commercial aircraft, which provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility across commercial, defense, and services while reducing demand risk as production normalizes. Its 3Q26 revenue of $24.2 billion, positive free cash flow of $464 million, and reduced net debt of $25.2 billion show that operational recovery and deleveraging are gaining traction even as management works through certification and delivery timing on the 777X and 737 MAX programs. The outlook is further strengthened by projected free cash flow improving from about $2 billion in 2026 to $10 billion in 2029, with rising production rates, improving margins, and recurring aftermarket and defense revenue creating a credible path to stronger cash generation.

Boeing is facing a fundamental reset in expectations as management pushed out free cash flow generation by roughly a year, guiding to about $3B in 2027 versus the Street’s $5.7B while capex rises to about $5B and deferred production advances remain a drag. The core risk is the commercial airplanes business, where 737 MAX output is still constrained, 2026 deliveries are expected to fall short of 500, the 787 is only at 8 per month, and abnormal costs from supplier disruption and certification delays continue to pressure margins and cash conversion. Although defense and services should grow, weaker defense spending, higher investment needs, and delayed 777X cash generation keep Boeing’s 2027–29 free cash flow path and earnings recovery vulnerable to further execution risk.