BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry has demonstrated a strong financial position, ending Q3 with net cash of $181 million, reflecting effective cash management and operational stability. The company has seen substantial improvements in its gross margins, particularly in its QNX segment, which rose by 252 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 83%, alongside an impressive gross margin of 72.2% for Secure Communications, which increased 596 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Furthermore, BlackBerry is projecting revenue growth, with estimated total revenues increasing to $539 million for FY26 and $571 million for FY27, alongside a significant rise in EBITDA projections for both years, highlighting the company's robust growth trajectory.

The financial data indicates a concerning trend for BlackBerry, as the gross margin for its Secure Communications segment declined by 330 basis points quarter-over-quarter, reflecting a potential deterioration in profitability due to revenue mix challenges. Additionally, the company's annual recurring revenue (ARR) for Secure Communications remained flat year-over-year, coupled with a decrease in dollar-based net retention rate (DBNRR) to 92%, signaling potential customer retention issues in a competitive market. Finally, while the mid-point of fiscal year 2026 guidance was raised, anticipated growth rates have decreased, with expectations of only 10% to 13% year-over-year growth in the upcoming quarters, contrasting sharply with previous performance metrics.