BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

BlackBerry is benefiting from a clearer growth inflection as QNX’s royalty momentum, record design wins, and a $950MM backlog increasingly convert into revenue, while embedded software demand rises with software-defined vehicle content and physical AI opportunities. The company’s Q2 results were strong, with revenue up 26% Y/Y to $163MM, adjusted EBITDA of $47MM, and free cash flow of $27MM, while FY27 guidance rose to $616-636MM of revenue and $141-158MM of adjusted EBITDA, signaling improving scale and profitability. Although Secure Comms remains a smaller growth contributor and government procurement adds near-term noise, BlackBerry’s $447MM cash and investments and higher cash-flow outlook give it financial flexibility to support further execution.

BlackBerry is facing a bearish fundamental setup because Secure Communications is growing too slowly, with Q2 revenue of $61MM below expectations and Q3 guidance of $55-60MM implying a sharp Y/Y decline, while adjusted gross margin fell 490 bps to 61% and NRR slipped to 91%. Its backlog and visibility are also weakening, as total RPO fell 12% Y/Y to $128MM and current RPO dropped 14%, suggesting demand is not keeping pace with management’s longer-term growth ambitions. At the same time, QNX growth appears set to decelerate on tough automotive comparisons and lumpy royalty timing, while valuation remains stretched at the high end of its 5-year range and well above Auto Tech peers, limiting risk-reward.