BFST Stock Forecast & Price Target

Business First Bancshares is benefiting from solid loan growth, with end-of-period loans up 7.3% linked-quarter in 3Q26, alongside 14% linked-quarter net interest income growth to $80.7 million and 13 basis points of GAAP NIM expansion to 3.86%. The company’s profitability also improved as core EPS of $0.79 beat estimates, aided by lower provision and noninterest expense, while core pre-provision net revenue rose to $1.11 per share and management continued to emphasize expense control. Credit quality appears to be improving, with nonperforming assets falling to 1.57% of loans plus REO, net charge-offs at 17 basis points, and additional resolutions expected to further strengthen the balance sheet.

Business First Bancshares is facing a weaker fundamental setup because 2Q26 core EPS of $0.71 missed the $0.73 estimate as fee income fell to $13.4 million versus $14.0 million expected and core operating expenses rose to $58.4 million from $57.3 million. Its core PPNR/share of $1.00 also trailed the $1.05 estimate, while core NIE increased to $58.4 million from $55.2 million in the prior quarter, highlighting limited operating leverage and persistent cost pressure from marketing and other expenses. Combined with risks of credit deterioration, competitive pressure on loan and deposit pricing, and potential NIM compression from a flat or inverted yield curve, the outlook remains negative despite expectations for some expense relief later.