Backblaze (BLZE) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Backblaze is benefiting from accelerating B2 Cloud momentum, with revenue growth up 47% year over year and management now guiding to roughly 60% year-over-year B2 growth in 4QCY26, supported by a 4x increase in self-serve customers and multiple $500,000-plus ARR wins. Its investment case is strengthened by AI and neocloud demand, including a $335 million five-year-plus CoreWeave agreement and early traction from other AI builders, which validates Backblaze’s low-cost, scalable storage position. Financially, the company raised CY26 revenue guidance to $177.8 million-$178.2 million, lifted adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 30%-31%, and showed improving retention with B2 Cloud Storage NRR at 115% and total NRR at 105%.

Backblaze is challenged by intense competition from Amazon, Google, Microsoft and other cloud giants that can undercut pricing, improve integrations, and pressure its ability to win new storage business. It remains unprofitable while continuing to spend on sales and marketing, datacenter infrastructure, and product innovation, so any slowdown in growth could extend the path to durable positive FCF and keep gross margins under pressure from infrastructure costs. Its dependence on SMB and mid-market customers, plus risks around churn, service disruptions, breaches, and weaker cloud growth assumptions, makes execution fragile and the stock outlook negative.