BRLT Stock Forecast & Price Target

Brilliant Earth Group Inc reported a robust increase in total net sales, which rose 10.4% year-over-year to $110.3 million, surpassing consensus expectations and guidance. The company experienced significant growth in key product categories, with total orders increasing 16.8% year-over-year, reflecting strong customer acquisition and loyalty, particularly in engagement ring and fine jewelry bookings. Additionally, the total inventory increased by 27.5% year-over-year to $49.1 million, indicating the company’s proactive approach to meeting rising demand in a strengthening market environment.

Brilliant Earth Group Inc. has experienced a significant contraction in gross margin, which declined over 300 basis points year-over-year to 57.6%, failing to meet market expectations and contributing to a shortfall in adjusted EBITDA. In addition, adjusted operating expenses increased nearly 300 basis points year-over-year to 55.9% of sales, further exacerbating margin pressures and contrasting with prior estimates. The company's projections for fiscal year 2025 indicate a downward revision of adjusted EBITDA to $13.2 million, markedly lower than previous forecasts and last year's performance, reflecting ongoing challenges from heightened metal prices and tariffs.