Bentley Systems (BSY) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Bentley Systems is well positioned because it combines a dominant niche franchise in infrastructure software with a large, expanding market opportunity tied to aging assets, sustainability, digital twins, and AI-enabled productivity gains. Recent results reinforce that thesis, with ARR rising 13% at constant currency, subscription revenue up 12.4%, NRR at 110%, and adjusted EBITDA margins near 38%, showing strong demand and operating leverage. The portfolio shift also improves the story, as the Cohesive divestiture makes revenue more recurring while Eliis adds a synergistic, higher-growth geoscience platform that can expand Seequent and support long-duration organic growth.

Bentley Systems is facing a weaker fundamental setup because the downside case depends on slower EBITDA growth in CY/26-27E, which would likely follow softer tech spending, fewer new customer wins, and lower renewal and expansion rates. Its valuation could also compress if growth and margins disappoint, and the China JV has already fallen short of expectations because the state-owned partner has been “dragging their feet,” limiting near-term upside. More broadly, the company faces crowded and well-capitalized competition, possible pricing pressure from larger vendors, and macro risks such as higher interest rates and government debt levels that could slow construction activity.