Blackstone Group (BX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blackstone, the world's largest alternative-asset manager, reported a robust increase in net realizations totaling $505 million, which exceeded expectations and marked a 34% rise from the prior four-quarter average. The firm is poised for significant growth in its real estate earnings, potentially expanding by 50% to 100% as the cyclical recovery gains momentum, bolstered by higher peer multiples and improved revenue outlook. Additionally, the company stands to benefit from a larger-than-ever forward IPO pipeline and favorable industry trends, which support a positive earnings outlook, with projected growth of 20% year-over-year in both fee-related earnings and distribution earnings through 2026.

Blackstone's financial outlook appears negatively impacted by anticipated declines in management fee growth, projected to fall from 14% in 3Q25, coupled with expected reductions in FRE margins from their current level of 59.3%. Despite an all-time high in transaction and advisory fee revenues, management predicts a decrease in these earnings for 4Q25, signaling potential weakness ahead. Furthermore, any adverse changes in the operating environment or capital markets could substantially harm Blackstone's overall financial performance and operational stability.