BXSL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Blackstone Secured is supported by a conservatively positioned portfolio that is 97.6% first lien, diversified across 316 names, and only 3.1% non-accrual, which helps limit downside in stressed credit environments. Its credit quality has also been strong, with trailing five- and four-year losses of 57 bps and 96 bps versus group averages of 113 bps and 197 bps, while 1Q26 net investment income per share of $0.77 exceeded estimates and 2025 NII margin was 7.4%. The outlook is further strengthened by estimated $2.3B of liquidity, a 10.2% ROE since inception, and the Blackstone Credit platform’s scale, sourcing, and underwriting advantages across $443B in AUM.

Blackstone Secured is facing a weakening fundamental backdrop because its estimated ROE of 9.5% is below the 11.7% dividend/NAV burden, implying the payout is likely under pressure as earnings lag distributions. Non-accruals rose meaningfully to 4.7% of the portfolio on an amortized cost basis, while leverage increased to 1.32x debt/equity, above management’s 1.0x-1.25x target and the 1.24x industry average, leaving less cushion if credit conditions soften. The portfolio is also concentrated in software at 20.7% and broadly in software and other technology at 30.0%, so competition, AI disruption, and business-cycle sensitivity could further compress yields, NAV, and dividend coverage.