CarGurus (CARG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CarGurus is supported by a durable marketplace position, with the largest U.S. car-shopping audience, 37.8 million monthly unique visitors, and strong monetization through add-on products that lifted U.S. QARSD to $8,308, up 7% y/y, while consolidated QARSD reached $6,955. Its new products, especially PriceVantage, VINMax, and StockVantage, are driving higher dealer ROI, faster lead generation, and broader wallet share, helping U.S. paying dealers rise to 26,402 and international revenue grow 22% y/y. The company also shows improving profitability, with 3Q26 adjusted EBITDA of $90 million and a 35% margin near the high end of guidance, while full-year 2026 revenue and EBITDA guidance were raised despite softer traffic and cautious dealer spending.

CarGurus is facing a negative fundamental setup because dealer margin pressure, affordability constraints, and softer consumer demand are reducing marketplace engagement and ad spending, with management also pointing to lower days-on-lot and dealer caution that weighed on bookings in the first half of 2026. The implied Q4 revenue step-down reflects lingering weakness, while new dealer ad products are producing dilutive QARSD and slower-than-expected monetization as agentic traffic and lower-quality leads complicate conversion. Residual CarOffer integration issues, tariff-related pressure on used-car profitability, and macro risks could further slow EBITDA growth and increase churn, leaving the stock vulnerable even though bookings improved sequentially from Q2 to Q3.