Carlsmed Inc (CARL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carlsmed Inc. is projected to experience significant growth, with annual utilization per surgeon expected to rise to approximately 9.7 by 2027, an increase from 5.8 in 2024, supported by the addition of around 400 new physicians to its aggregate base. The company’s lumbar revenue is anticipated to reach about $121 million by 2028, indicating a robust potential for revenue generation as the market for spine fusion surgery expands. Additionally, the cervical product line, set to launch commercially in 2026, is expected to contribute approximately 15% to Carlsmed's overall revenue mix by 2028, further enhancing the company’s financial outlook.

Carlsmed Inc. faces a negative outlook primarily due to the anticipated decline in average selling price (ASP) per case, driven by a rising mix of cervical surgeries, which are projected to be approximately 50% lower in ASP compared to other procedures. Additionally, despite achieving a best-in-class inventory turnover, this efficiency is occurring at a significantly reduced revenue base, indicating potential challenges in sustaining revenue growth. Furthermore, while the company manages to maintain a commendable gross margin, it is doing so against a backdrop of declining revenue, which raises concerns about long-term profitability and market position.