Chubb (CB) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Chubb has demonstrated robust growth across its various segments, with Life NWP increasing by 25%, driven largely by significant international expansion, particularly in Asia and Latin America, which exhibited growth rates of 12% on a constant currency basis. The company’s diversified geographic presence and reliance on middle market and small commercial business provide a foundation for resilience and steady premium growth, even as competition intensifies in larger accounts. Furthermore, positive indicators of sustained core P&C combined ratio improvement and solid investment income growth position Chubb favorably for future profitability against its peers.

Chubb's financial outlook appears bleak due to a combination of excess capital leading to a lower return on equity (ROE) by approximately 2 percentage points, which indicates inefficiencies in capital allocation, totaling around $8.5 billion. The company has recently underperformed relative to the S&P 500 and the KBW Insurance Index, raising concerns over declining pricing trends in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance segment, particularly with an uptick in global reinsurance losses. Additionally, slower-than-expected growth in North America commercial pricing, combined with only modest increases in exposure unit growth, suggests challenges in maintaining robust profitability moving forward.