CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. is anticipated to see its stock performance improve due to successful turnaround efforts, including menu innovation, service enhancements, and strategic pricing, which are expected to positively impact financial estimates and valuation multiples. The company’s strong traffic growth in F4Q25, including the first positive dinner traffic since FY19, highlights the effectiveness of its strategies, while a burgeoning loyalty program now boasting approximately 9 million members signifies growing customer engagement. Despite potential headwinds from increased marketing expenses and labor investments aimed at enhancing guest experiences, the outlook remains positive as FY26 sales guidance is viewed as conservative, pointing to sustained momentum and the potential for recovery and growth in both the near and long term.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc has issued EBITDA margin guidance at 5.0% for the mid-point, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 140 basis points amidst a projected sales decrease of approximately 2.4%. The company's menu pricing strategy, which anticipates increases of 4.0-5.0%, struggles to keep pace with rising commodity and wage inflation, estimated at 2.5-3.5% and 3.0-4.0% respectively. Additionally, the company's fiscal year 2026 same-store sales expectation has significantly worsened to -0.9%, compared to a prior estimate of +0.8%, contributing to an overall negative outlook for the stock.