CBRL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc is undergoing significant turnaround efforts, including menu innovation and improved service levels, which are expected to enhance sales and boost investor confidence in the company's future. The guidance for fiscal year 2026 suggests that a strong foundation exists for long-term growth, as traffic improvements and a growing loyalty program signal increasing customer engagement and retention. Additionally, the authorized $100 million share repurchase plan indicates a commitment to returning value to shareholders, complementing the company's initiatives aimed at attracting a broader demographic while maintaining its legacy customer base.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. has significantly reduced its fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, revising expectations down to $70 to $110 million from a previous range of $150 to $190 million. The company's traffic continues to decline, reported at a 7.3% decrease in fiscal 1Q26 and worsening to an 11% decline in fiscal 2Q26-to-date, which adversely affects sales and profitability. Furthermore, the adjusted EBITDA margin guidance has been lowered to 5.0%, reflecting a 140 basis points year-over-year drop, amidst ongoing pressures from commodity and wage inflation despite anticipated menu price increases and projected cost savings.