Carnival (CCL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carnival's positive outlook is underscored by its significant load improvement, which has shown an increase of nearly 500 basis points, alongside a boost from new capacity and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Additionally, the company raised its full-year yield guidance by 100 basis points, reflecting confidence in its financial performance and a projected 12% uplift. Booking patterns remain strong, indicating robust customer demand, while operational adjustments and an improved order backlog position Carnival for enhanced efficiency and overall resilience in the cruise industry.

Carnival's stock outlook is negatively impacted by several fundamental factors, including a significant decline in bookings and revenue expectations as indicated by peer companies experiencing softening trends. The company's decision to drastically scale back its new ship pipeline suggests a lack of growth potential, with a capacity growth rate forecasted at less than 2% through 2028, falling well below the industry average of approximately 6%. Additionally, recent adjustments to EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027, which have been lowered by around 5% per year, further reflect the market's anticipation of unfavorable operational performance in the near term.