Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Carlyle Group, a leading alternative-asset manager, reported total assets under management (AUM) of $474.1 billion as of September 2025, with a significant portion of $332.0 billion attributed to fee-earning AUM. The company is diversified across three core business segments, including global private equity, which accounts for $163.5 billion in total AUM, global credit at $208.5 billion, and investment/fund solutions with $102.1 billion in AUM. With a strong global presence across 29 offices and a robust client base of over 3,100 active investors in 87 countries, Carlyle Group demonstrates solid fundamentals supporting a positive outlook for its stock.

Carlyle Group's outlook is negatively impacted by declining production at the Oksut mine and struggling output at the Mount Milligan operation, which is trading at a 30% discount to spot prices. The firm faces challenges with gold equivalent production, which has significantly decreased since 2022, with growth not anticipated to resume until 2028 or 2029, greatly trailing peers who maintain over 90% exposure. Furthermore, Mount Milligan, accounting for approximately 50% of net asset value and 70% of production through the end of 2027, has consistently missed initial production guidance, now forecasted to be about 25% lower than industry counterparts.