Charter Communications (CHTR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Charter Communications is supported by resilient operating performance, with 3Q26 revenue of $16.51B and EBITDA of $6.59B roughly in line with expectations, while broadband subscriber losses of -228K were better than modeled and residential mobile line adds of 489K showed strong cross-sell momentum. The Cox acquisition strengthens the investment case by expanding scale across roughly 71 million homes and businesses and adding over $1B of expected synergies, while management’s $2B incremental savings initiative and $11B of 2027 capex reinforce a credible long-term free cash flow and deleveraging story toward a 3.5x target. Despite broadband competition concerns, churn remained stable, ARPU reached $73.01, and management’s focus on leaner operations, AI-driven efficiency, and faster integration suggests improving earnings power.

Charter Communications is facing a deteriorating fundamental setup because broadband subscriber losses and weaker broadband ARPU show that intense competition from fiber overbuilds, fixed wireless, and OTT substitution is pressuring its core revenue engine. Although 3Q26 and 2Q26 were broadly in line on revenue, EBITDA still missed modestly or declined, while management has already talked down the prior hopes of 2026 EBITDA growth and provided only vague “more details to come” on its new operating model. The company’s attempt to lean on mobile growth, pricing actions, and an eventual deleveraging story is not enough to offset a levered balance sheet, outsized pay-TV erosion, regulatory risk, and uncertainty around when subscriber losses will stabilize.