Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Colgate-Palmolive is supported by a resilient global portfolio, with international sales around 70% of business, nearly half from emerging markets, and organic sales growth of 3.6% led by Emerging Markets at 5.4%. The company is also benefiting from operating leverage, as 1.7% volume/mix growth helped lift gross margin and EPS, while FY26 gross margin is expected at 60.4% and EPS at $3.93, reflecting strong productivity and pricing actions. Hill’s adds another growth engine with 5.7% organic sales growth, and improving toothpaste share trends plus a new organizational structure suggest North America could stabilize and support a better 2027 setup.

Colgate-Palmolive is facing a fundamentally weaker earnings trajectory because its North America business remains a growth drag, with Q3 organic sales down 1.6%, volumes down 3%, and operating margin down 210 bps to 19.5% amid elevated promotional pressure and innovation gaps. Management’s repeated need to lean on pricing and productivity highlights limited pricing power just as inflation is expected to accelerate to 12% and weigh on gross margin by 480 bps in 4Q, while FX is turning into a headwind with the Brazilian real down 12%. Although international momentum and Hill’s provide scale, the company’s heavy exposure to emerging markets, volatile currencies, and persistent commodity and logistics costs raises the risk that it cannot sustain the 5-7% EPS growth investors may be expecting.