CNCK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coincheck Group NV has demonstrated notable user growth, with verified users increasing by 16% in FY24 and 10% in FY25, indicating a solid expansion in its customer base within Japan. The company's prudent approach to marketing spending, particularly during periods of favorable trading volume, has contributed to strong EBITDA margins, underscoring effective cost management and operational efficiency. Additionally, the introduction of diverse product offerings, including NFTs, enhances revenue streams and strengthens unit economics, further supporting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance.

Coincheck Group NV is facing fundamental challenges reflected in a forecasted high-single-digit decline in gross profit per monthly user for FY26, coupled with expectations of only mid-20s growth in FY27, primarily bolstered by marketplace trading volume. Additionally, the company's projected decline in selling, general, and administrative expenses, excluding customer acquisition costs, further emphasizes the difficulties ahead, with estimates indicating a mid-single-digit decline in FY26 and a low-single-digit decline in FY27. Furthermore, the anticipated modest decline in gross margins over the next two years, driven by increasing competitive pressure and lower spreads, adds to the negative outlook on the company's financial performance.