CNCK Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coincheck Group NV has demonstrated significant growth in its user base, with verified users increasing by 16% in FY24 and 10% in FY25, indicating strong customer engagement and market expansion in Japan's digital asset landscape. The company's effective management of marketing expenditures, combined with favorable trading volumes, has resulted in improved EBITDA margins, showcasing its operational efficiency and adaptability in a dynamic market. Furthermore, the introduction of diverse product offerings beyond cryptocurrencies positions Coincheck to diversify its revenue streams and enhance unit economics, contributing to a positive long-term financial outlook.

The financial analysis indicates a negative outlook for Coincheck Group, driven by forecasts of a high-single-digit decline in gross profit per monthly user for FY26, paired with only mid-20s growth anticipated for FY27, despite a tailwind from marketplace trading volume. Additionally, the estimates reveal a mid-single-digit decline in selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses, excluding marketing costs, for both FY26 and FY27, suggesting potential operational inefficiencies. Furthermore, a modest decline in gross margin is anticipated over the same period, attributed to increased competitive pressure resulting in reduced spreads.