CNX Resources (CNX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CNX Resources is viewed positively because its core Marcellus and Utica shale assets, combined with peer-leading cash operating margins and strong well productivity, support attractive free cash flow generation even in a weaker gas tape. The company also has a differentiated New Tech platform that can monetize environmental attributes, with $15MM of net sales in 3Q, about $30MM of 45Z credits separately monetized, and expectations for roughly $40MM in annual 45Z sales beginning in FY27. Its hedging program adds downside protection, with '27 volumes about 60% hedged and an estimated ~$154MM benefit, while valuation remains reasonable at 4.4x '27e EV/EBITDA and 9% FCF yield.

CNX Resources is trading at a relatively rich 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.4x while offering only a 5.9% FCF yield, which appears less compelling than natgas peers at 4.8x and 9%, respectively. The valuation relies on an NAV framework that credits PDP and risked undeveloped 2P reserves under development expectations tied to strip pricing for five years and a $3.50/Mcf long-term gas assumption, leaving the investment case highly dependent on sustained favorable commodity pricing. That combination of above-peer valuation, modest free cash flow yield, and sensitivity to long-term gas assumptions supports a negative outlook despite CNX’s shale-focused asset base.