Vita Coco (COCO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Vita Coco Co Inc. operates in the plant-based functional hydration market, with significant growth potential attributed to strong barriers to entry and limited competition in the coconut water category. Recent acceleration in market share gains positions the company favorably, projecting a robust increase in revenue and EBITDA, driven by sustained consumer demand. Expectations of modestly higher consumer takeaway in 2025, followed by continued mid-teens growth in 2026, suggest a promising trajectory that could yield an additional $25 million in revenue.

Vita Coco's general and administrative expenses (G&A) are projected to increase to a range of 22-23% of sales despite a previous decline of 100 basis points, indicating potential inefficiencies as the company's sales do not grow sufficiently to absorb these rising costs. Additionally, the company faces persistent tariff rates and only short-lived declines in ocean freight costs, which heightens its reliance on raising prices that may negatively impact demand elasticity and lead to downward revisions in current market estimates. Furthermore, the coconut water category is experiencing a slowdown, and as Vita Coco cycles through challenging comparisons, it risks losing market share, further threatening revenue projections.