Compass (COMP) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Compass is positioned for continued fundamental strength because it is gaining share in a weak housing market, with pro forma brokerage GTV of $133.1 billion up 7.5% year over year and national sides share at 15.1%, while average revenue per transaction rose to $3,590. Its integration of Anywhere is already expanding scale, with 33,950 professionals onboarded as of October 31, 2026, CSAT at 4.1 out of 5, and synergies expected this year to reach $245 million, supporting a pro forma EBITDA CAGR of about 40% from '25-'27. Balance sheet progress adds to the appeal, as net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell to 2.7x and the company appears well positioned to handle its $500 million 9.75% notes when first callable in the second quarter of 2027.

Compass is facing a more difficult operating backdrop as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.5% in October, pushing buyers to the sidelines and causing pending home sales to fall 7.3% sequentially in September. That pressure is showing up in weaker guidance, with fourth quarter revenue of $3.15 billion to $3.35 billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $100 million to $130 million both below consensus, while estimates were cut to $13.994 billion of full-year revenue and $844 million of full-year EBITDA. The outlook also remains burdened by execution risk from the Anywhere acquisition, the need to achieve $330 million to $360 million of 2026 actioned synergies, and added debt, all of which make earnings recovery less certain.