Coursera (COUR) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Coursera is supported by a large, underpenetrated digital learning market, a dual-segment model that creates a consumer-to-enterprise flywheel, and a strong competitive position that partners and customers view favorably for reach, innovation, and content depth. Its 3Q26 results showed resilience, with revenue of $376.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $61.5 million, while gross margin expanded to 63.7% and the company finished with about $775.5 million in cash and marketable securities and zero debt, underscoring financial flexibility. Although consumer softness and Udemy integration create near-term noise, management’s buyback activity and the potential for continued margin expansion suggest the underlying business remains attractive and improving.

Coursera is facing a negative fundamental setup because its core Consumer engine is still underperforming long-term ambitions, with 3Q paid subscribers up 29.8% Y/Y to 1.687mm but management now expecting low-double-digit Y/Y declines in Consumer revenue in 2027 as discretionary spending weakens and SEO/traffic patterns shift. Enterprise looks only cautiously stable: 3Q revenue of $200.9mm beat consensus, yet customer count fell 3.6% Y/Y to 11,897 and management’s FY27 view is “flat to slightly down,” with no upside from Project Helix baked in despite a 93% NRR. Even with more than $150mm of annualized gross savings and a $115mm net synergy target, the report sees revenue contraction, purchase-accounting normalization, and weaker working capital absorbing much of the benefit, leaving 4Q guidance of $358mm-$366mm and $55mm-$59mm of adjusted EBITDA below consensus.