California Resources (CRC) Stock Forecast & Price Target

California Resources is supported by a differentiated mix of low-decline California upstream assets, carbon management optionality, and monetizable real estate and power infrastructure that together create multiple paths to value. The company’s first CO2 injection at Carbon TerraVault I stored 27,479 tonnes in the first 2,241 hours, while the Elk Hills opportunity set could support about 6.1 MMt/a of CO2 injections and roughly $450 million of EBITDA, with 275 MW of gas-fired capacity and a potential PPA adding further upside. Its outlook is strengthened by improving California regulatory support for CCS, a 2045 carbon-neutrality framework, reduced 2025–2030 emissions and water targets, and value-creating projects such as the Golden Valley Tech Hub, Uinta sales potential, and the Crimson Midstream acquisition.

California Resources is facing a weaker fundamental setup after agreeing to sell its Uinta Basin assets for $90MM, a modestly disappointing outcome versus the higher value previously assumed for 1H26 net production of 5 MBoepd and 100K net acres. The divestiture reduces near-term scale and forces estimate cuts, including a 3% reduction in 2027 production to 150 MBoepd and a 9% cut in CFPS to $11.53, underscoring limited earnings momentum. The company’s longer-term upside also remains dependent on execution in development and carbon management, while a downside case below $50/bbl WTI and $2.50/Mcf HH highlights meaningful commodity sensitivity.