CRCL Stock Forecast & Price Target

Circle Internet Group Inc. demonstrates a strong competitive position in the digital currency space, with USDC circulation experiencing a notable quarterly increase of 20.2% to $73.75 billion by the end of 3Q25, signaling robust adoption. The company reported total revenue and reserve income of $1.68 billion in 2024, a 16% year-over-year increase, largely driven by higher reserve returns and an increase in average USDC circulation. Furthermore, projections indicate significant growth potential, with net revenue expected to rise from $0.7 billion in 2024 to approximately $2 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 50%.

Circle Internet Group's stock outlook appears negative primarily due to a forecasted decline in the company's reserve return rate, which is projected to drop to 3.14% by 2Q26 from 4.15% in 3Q25, indicating a significant near-term challenge for revenue generation. Additionally, the company faces potential stagnation in USDC circulation below $120 billion amidst increased competition from bank-issued stablecoins and ongoing regulatory pressures, which could further compress reserve yields and impede EBITDA growth. Lastly, given that Circle’s stock trades at elevated multiples relative to peers, including an EV/2026 revenue multiple of approximately 9x and a 39x adjusted EBITDA multiple, the valuation appears less justified in light of anticipated financial headwinds.