Criteo S.A. (CRTO) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Criteo is supported by a resilient asset base in digital advertising, with 3Q26 contribution ex-TAC of $240mm and total revenue of $416mm both ahead of estimates, while adjusted EBITDA of $65mm and free cash flow of $21mm showed stronger-than-expected profitability and cash generation. Its outlook is further strengthened by signs of stabilization: open opportunities were up 72% y/y, new business spend rose 13% y/y, and Retail Media gained traction with auction-based display live at more than 85 retailers, setting up a cleaner 2027 despite recent headwinds. Management also has multiple future growth catalysts, including expanding CTV globally, a ChatGPT partnership that broadened from seven countries to 89 and is expected to matter more in 2027, and a core Performance Media franchise that still generates the majority of revenue.

Criteo is facing a fundamentally weaker outlook because the company’s largest profit engine, Performance Media, is being hit by several large enterprise clients cutting spend, driving a high-single-digit constant currency decline and leaving management with no assumed recovery through the balance of the year. Although Retail Media is beginning to lap prior headwinds and underlying growth is expected in the low-teens, its core growth slowed to 10% in 3Q26 and some retailer rollouts are slipping into 2027, limiting near-term offset. The latest quarter also showed broad pressure, with total contribution ex-TAC of $255mm and revenue of $428mm both below expectations, free cash flow of ($38mm), and management lowering the FY outlook.