CrowdStrike (CRWD) Stock Forecast & Price Target

CrowdStrike Holdings has demonstrated robust growth with a 26% year-over-year increase in direct customers, reaching 29,000, and a total revenue growth of 25.2% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations. The company’s total contract value (TCV) has increased by 40% year-over-year, exceeding $6 billion, alongside significant growth in its LogScale ARR, which surged over 140% year-over-year. Additional initiatives like the Falcon Flex licensing program and strong performance in cloud security, which saw ARR exceeding $600 million and growing by over 45% year-over-year, further contribute to a positive outlook on CrowdStrike's financial prospects.

CrowdStrike Holdings reported a significant 15% year-over-year decline in free cash flow, raising concerns about its financial health amidst rising operational costs and investment pressures. The company's guidance for F1Q26 reflects an anticipated decline of 11% year-over-year in new annual recurring revenue (ARR), along with total revenue estimates slightly below market expectations, indicating potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum. Additionally, lower non-GAAP earnings per share guidance, coupled with the negative impact from operational disruptions and increasing sales compensation, suggests ongoing profitability challenges that may hinder investor confidence.