Chevron (CVX) Stock Forecast & Price Target

Chevron is supported by a clear post-TCO cash-flow inflection, as ex-HES capex is falling to about $15B annually, affiliate capex has dropped with FGP startup, and loan repayments from TCO add about $2B in 2026. Its outlook is also strengthened by a diversified growth pipeline, including Namibia, Guyana, Nigeria, Angola, Eastern Med, Iraq, and Argentina, while maintaining >1MM bpoed in the Permian with lower reinvestment needs. Fundamentally, the stock still appears inexpensive versus historical valuation and XOM, while low leverage near 15% net debt to capital and durable $10-20B annual buybacks support continued capital returns and medium-term rerating potential.

Chevron is viewed negatively because its growth is moderating across several large assets, which may support free cash flow but weakens underlying earnings momentum. Recent large-scale M&A appears expensive, and challenged execution on major projects has pressured ROACE, while E&P headwinds are building from weaker commodity pricing, lost production tied to Guyana cost saturation, and a larger decline in DJ output back to 400kbd. Even with a $0.2B tax withholding benefit, the quarter-over-quarter timing headwind rising to $1.7B underscores a less favorable earnings setup versus TD Cowen/prior/consensus estimates of $6.0B/$7.1B/$6.9B.