DoorDash (DASH) Stock Forecast & Price Target

DoorDash's core U.S. restaurant business is projected to maintain a double-digit growth trajectory, with non-core segments accounting for approximately 25% of global gross order value (GOV), reflecting an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the past two years. The company's user base, with over 100 million customers and more than 7 million deliveries daily, showcases significant penetration of just 12% relative to a total addressable market of 800 million, indicating ample room for expansion. Furthermore, DoorDash's financial performance is underscored by a 394 basis point year-over-year improvement in EBITDA margin, reaching 19.7% of revenue, coupled with an upward revision of Adjusted EBITDA estimates for FY25 and FY26, primarily driven by increased GOV growth expected to exceed prior estimates.

DoorDash's financial outlook is negatively impacted by a projected decline in EBITDA for the fourth quarter and a first-quarter estimate that falls below expectations, indicating increased costs associated with maintaining premium growth levels. Additionally, the company is experiencing a anticipated deceleration in bookings by approximately 200 basis points, which raises concerns about future growth potential. Furthermore, competitive pressures and regulatory challenges, particularly in the U.S., contribute to an unfavorable market environment, leading to compression of the stock's near-term valuation multiples.